"Egypt Will Explode" Says ElBaradei As Defiant Mubarak Refuses To Resign

After a tumultuous day filled with rumors since early this morning that President Hosni Mubarak would resign his presidency under pressure from the majority of Egyptians, he remains intransigent and now says he will not leave, but intends remain in office until his term ends in September.

Al Jazeera reports: Defiant Mubarak refuses to resign:

Hosni Mubarak, the embattled Egyptian president, has refused to step down from his post, saying that he will not bow to "foreign pressure" in a televised address to the nation on Thursday evening.

Putting to rest widespread speculations that he will quit, Mubarak announced that he was delegating some authorities to his new vice-president, Omar Suleiman, a close confidante.

In a much anticipated speech, Mubarak said he had put into place a framework that would lead to the amendment of six constitutional articles (including articles 77, 88, 93 and 189, and the annulment of article 179).

"I can not and will not accept to be dictated orders from outside, no matter what the source is," Mubarak said.
[snip]
Mubarak's comments were not well-received by hundreds of thousands gathered at Cairo's Tahrir [Liberation] Square and in other cities, who erupted into angry chants against him. Pro-democracy protesters had been expecting Mubarak to resign, and their mood of celebration quickly turned to extreme anger as they heard the president's speech.

Rawya Rageh, Al Jazeera's correspondent in Liberation Square said the "mood completely altered as the president progressed with his speech", with protesters expressing "frustration and anger" at him. Hundreds took off their shoes and waved them angrily at a screen showing Mubarak's speech, shouting "Leave, leave!"

Mohamed ElBaradei, an opposition figure and former chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency, responded to the speech by saying "Egypt will explode. Army must save the country now", on the microblogging website Twitter.
[snip]
Ahead of the speech, Jacky Rowland, our correspondent in Tahrir Square, described the atmosphere as "electric", with "standing room only" in the central Cairo area. She said that thousands gathered there were "celebrating a victory which has been anticipated, rather than actually achieved".

In Alexandria, Jamal ElShayyal, our correspondent, said the atmosphere turned "from joyous to now furious" as Mubarak completed his speech.

More at Al Jazeera English

The Austin, Texas based "global intelligence company" Strategic Forecasting, Inc., more commonly known as STRATFOR, issued this analysis of the Egyptian situation following Mubarak's latest refusal to leave today, in an emailed "Red Alert: The Egyptian Military's Options" a few minutes ago...

The decision by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak not to resign seems to have shocked both the Egyptian military and Washington. CIA Director Leon Panetta spoke earlier as if his resignation was assured and a resolution to the crisis was guaranteed. Sources in Cairo spoke the same way. How the deal came apart, or whether Mubarak decided that transferring power to Vice President Omar Suleiman was sufficient cannot be known. What is known is that Mubarak did not do what was expected.

This now creates a massive crisis for the Egyptian military. Its goal is not to save Mubarak but to save the regime founded by Gamal Abdel Nasser. We are now less than six hours from dawn in Cairo. The military faces three choices. The first is to stand back, allow the crowds to swell and likely march to the presidential palace and perhaps enter the grounds. The second choice is to move troops and armor into position to block more demonstrators from entering Tahrir Square and keep those in the square in place. The third is to stage a coup and overthrow Mubarak.

The first strategy opens the door to regime change as the crowd, not the military, determines the course of events. The second creates the possibility of the military firing on the protesters, which have not been anti-military to this point. Clashes with the military (as opposed to the police, which have happened) would undermine the military's desire to preserve the regime and the perception of the military as not hostile to the public.

That leaves the third option, which is a coup. Mubarak will be leaving office under any circumstances by September. The military does not want an extraconstitutional action, but Mubarak's decision leaves the military in the position of taking one of the first two courses, which is unacceptable. That means military action to unseat Mubarak as the remaining choice.

One thing that must be borne in mind is that whatever action is taken must be taken in the next six or seven hours. As dawn breaks over Cairo, it is likely that large numbers of others will join the demonstrators and that the crowd might begin to move. The military would then be forced to stand back and let events go where they go, or fire on the demonstrators. Indeed, in order to do the latter, troops and armor must move into position now, to possibly overawe the demonstrators.

Thus far, the military has avoided confrontation with the demonstrators as much as possible, and the demonstrators have expressed affection toward the army. To continue that policy, and to deal with Mubarak, the options are removing him from office in the next few hours or possibly losing control of the situation. But if this is the choice taken, it must be taken tonight so that it can be announced before demonstrations get under way Feb. 11 after Friday prayers.

It is of course possible that the crowds, reflecting on Mubarak's willingness to cede power to Suleiman, may end the crisis, but it does not appear that way at the moment, and therefore the Egyptian military has some choices to make.